Shively, Kentucky 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

562
FXUS63 KLMK 031458
AFDLMK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Louisville KY
958 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

*  Chilly today with decreasing clouds. Highs in the low to mid
   30s.

*  Windy conditions expected Wednesday with gusts of 35-40 mph
   possible.

*  Cold wind chills in the teens Thursday.

*  Light winds but cold temperatures Thursday night, with the
   traditional cold spots dropping into the single digits.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 957 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

A low overcast continues in most locations this morning, with a few
flurries falling from the low ceiling that`s hovering around 1300-
2300 ft. However, visible satellite shows thin spots forming in the
cloud deck, especially from the Brandenburg and Bardstown areas
eastward to around Georgetown and Cynthiana. Though these clouds are
just below a strong low level inversion, this thinning/breaking up
is expected to continue, especially this afternoon as 925mb winds
switch from northerly this morning to southerly this afternoon.

Temperatures have only risen a degree or two since this morning`s
lows so far, but with the thinning of the cloud deck already
starting to occur, confidence has increased slightly that we`ll get
enough sun this afternoon to pull temperatures up toward the
freezing mark.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 311 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

Last evening`s mid-level shortwave trough is now over VA/NC early
this morning, with ridging nosing over the Ohio Valley. Deep NW flow
is in place, with sfc high pressure sliding southeast over Missouri
this morning. The low-level thermal trough is overhead, with around
-12 C noted in the 925-850 mb layer on model data as well as recent
SDF ACARS soundings. A narrow ribbon of moisture lingering in this
cold layer is resulting in widespread stratus. These clouds are
likely to linger through the morning hours before we see gradual
improvement this afternoon.

The clouds will help keep temperatures a bit warmer through sunrise
than most model data would suggest. Temperatures are fairly stable
in the mid 20s. Some slight cooling is anticipated through 8 am.
Overall, a quite chilly and mostly cloudy morning followed by more
sun during the second half of the day. Afternoon temps will struggle
back into the low to mid 30s.

Tonight, sfc high pressure shifts southeast to GA while a deepening
area of low pressure moves southeast over Ontario. We will see
strengthening low-level SW winds and WAA ahead of a cold front
cutting southeast through the Upper Midwest and Plains. Temperatures
are forecast to drop fairly quickly this evening with mostly clear
skies and light winds in place. However, WAA and increasing
southerly sfc winds will halt the temperature drop, with readings
increasing 06-12Z Wed as cloud cover begins to increase. Lows
tonight should reach the low to mid 20s for most, but the coolest
low-lying areas may still drop into the upper teens. Mid 20s to
lower 30s should be more common for the drive to work/school
Wednesday morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Issued at 311 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

Wednesday - Wednesday Night... The long term will begin with strong
troughing swinging through the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley. The
associated low pressure system will move through the northern Great
Lakes Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning. The cold front
will move through the Ohio Valley Wednesday evening through
Wednesday night. The best moisture and forcing will remain to the
northeast of the region. However, limited moisture in the low levels
and a 50-55kt LLJ may squeeze out some light rain along the front,
which could transition to flurries later in the night. Additionally,
the tight pressure gradient and 50-55kt LLJ will lead to gusty winds
Wednesday afternoon through Wednesday night. Expecting to see gusts
up to 35-40mph.

Thursday... The cold front will exit the region to the east and
strong CAA will fill into the region, bringing cold below normal
temperatures. Breezy conditions will persist through half the day as
the tight pressure gradient slowly weakens. High pressure will build
in from the northwest, allowing skies to clear. Though most of the
day will feature sunny skies, temperatures will struggle to reach
highs in the 30s. The LREF and NBM currently have a 20% chance of
exceeding 28F over most of central Kentucky and southern Indiana.
There is a good shot of getting close or breaking the cold max
records of 28 (SDF) and 32 (BWG). With cold temperatures and breezy
conditions, wind chills will likely be in the single digits during
the morning commute and teens in the afternoon.

Thursday Night - Saturday... High pressure will broaden and move
over the region Thursday night, keeping skies clear with light
winds. These conditions will lead to sufficient radiational cooling,
bringing low temperatures Friday morning well below normal in the
low-mid teens, with cool spots possibly reaching single digits.

High pressure will continue to be the main weather driver through
the early part of the weekend, keeping skies mostly sunny and winds
light. Temperatures will warm a few degrees each day.

Sunday - Early Next Week... High pressure will push east of the
region allowing southwesterly surface flow into the region. Early
next week, troughing over New Mexico could push eastward and into
the Ohio Valley, ahead of stronger troughing over the Rockies. The
first wave would bring lift to present moisture, and therefore,
widely scattered showers. The next stronger wave would send a low
pressure system from the Rockies across the Mississippi Valley and
into the Great Lakes region, and a cold front through the Ohio
Valley. This cold front would bring another shot at widely scattered
showers. Forecast confidence in these systems is low currently will
guidance diverging beyond Sunday. However, there is a general
consensus amongst guidance that we will see moisture return to the
region and some chance at precip.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 650 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

Impacts:

* MVFR ceilings lingering this morning (medium confidence on
  duration).

* Gusty winds from the SSW on Wednesday.

Discussion: MVFR stratus will persist this morning with cold low-
level air in place, and an inversion above the moist layer. Ceilings
are forecast to gradually improve/SCT out between 16-19Z, but
confidence remains medium on exact timing of the return to VFR.
Skies will then remain mostly clear until increasing mid clouds 09-
12Z Wed.

Light winds out of the NW this morning quickly back westerly and
then southwesterly by late in the afternoon. Light winds this
evening with southerly winds increasing to near 10 kts early
Wednesday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 314 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024

================== Near-Record Cold Max Thursday ==================


                             Thursday 12/05/2024
                          Max T Fcst/Cold Max (Year)

Louisville:                  27/27     (1895)

Bowling Green:               30/32     (2008)

Lexington:                   26/22     (1895)

&&

.LMK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KY...None.
IN...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...13
SHORT TERM...EBW
LONG TERM...SRM
AVIATION...EBW
CLIMATE...SRM